While what I don’t know about the future is probably much more than what I do know, what I do know is also a lot. Dealing with the future is all about:

  1. Perceiving and adapting to what is happening, even if it can’t be anticipated
  2. Coming up with probabilities for what might happen
  3. Knowing enough about what might happen to protect oneself against the unacceptable, even if one can’t do that perfectly

Knowing how things have changed in the past leads me to consider the possibility that something similar might happen in the future. That is a big advantage relative to being unaware. “…”

Knowing this, I am constantly looking for leading indicators of the same things happening again, and having leading indicators of these things, even if they aren’t perfect, puts me in a better position to protect myself than remaining blissfully unaware and unprepared for what might happen.

— Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail by Ray Dalio